Articles

The prerequisite for European strategic autonomy is internal unity, strength and resilience: the EU’s global role starts at home. If the EU is to live by its norms and laws, it must ensure that democratic standards, human rights and the rule of law, that constitute the core of the European project, are respected internally. Second, European strategic autonomy requires greater investment, responsibility and risk-taking in surrounding regions. Its economic ties with the Western Balkans, Turkey, Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean and the Middle East, but also reaching much of sub-Saharan Africa, will be key ingredients of a future that is both secure and sustainable. Finally, rather than sinking into protectionism and closure, the EU must govern interdependence, rebalancing relations to avoid the exploitation of dependences by partnering multilaterally. Strategic autonomy involves the EU’s capacity to shape international norms and practices towards formally accepted institutions, laws and procedures.

While healthy for the sake of parliamentary democracy, Italy’s opposition parties – a far-right bloc led by Fratelli d’Italia and a yet to be defined parliamentary alliance of ex-Movimento 5 Stelle members – will work to garner political capital by playing on the fears and economic hardship faced by many Italians. It is for this reason that Mario Draghi and Italy’s political parties must not lose sight of ordinary citizens, families and workers – particularly the youth, which are facing 30 per cent unemployment rates – when outlining their reform agenda. Investments will inevitably focus on large companies and Italy’s industrial base, but finding the correct balance between protecting Italy’s large production centres and making sure that the galaxy of small and medium enterprises that form the backbone of the economy is not left behind will be crucial to the success of Draghi’s reform agenda (as well as his chances to succeed Sergio Mattarella as President).

«The handling of the case of Juan Guaidó will be a challenge for the Biden administration. Yet, Biden would be wrong to continue with Trump’s mistakes, including an over-reliance on sanctions which have thus far failed to achieve results. The oil industry was already in a freefall when sanctions were first imposed on the country’s state-owned oil and natural gas company, Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) in January 2019. However, Maduro’s government is using them to deflect criticism for their handling of these sectors, concealing their own failings as well as serving as an excuse to conduct a political purge. Looking forward, it will not be easy for Biden to shed Trump’s policy. This is because this policy of pressure has, in fact, its origin in a decree signed by the Obama administration in 2015, declaring recent events in Venezuela an “extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States”.»

«Given the limited and fragmented international cooperation in cyberspace, the focus of cyber norms creation has shifted from global platforms towards regional organisations and like-minded states. While the EU’s interconnected infrastructures and economies make it vulnerable to common cross-border threats, they also make it easier to work towards a common strategy, develop common standards and coordinate incident response and capacity-building. Nevertheless, due to EU limitations in matters of intelligence and security, it will have to be the responsibility of single member states to implement GDDP according to shared standards and principles. The current phase of cyber arsenal expansion presents a good opportunity to include a GDDP process in the structure of EU military cyber organisations to reduce cyber weapons proliferation and increase costs for potential attackers.»

«The Covid-19 pandemic will contribute to a massive increase in the public debt levels of Eurozone member states, yet again very unevenly. It is estimated that German public debt will only increase to around 72 per cent of GDP in 2021. In Italy, on the other hand, the level of public debt will rise from about 135 per cent of GDP in 2019 to about 158 per cent in 2021. In the medium term, the debt market in the Eurozone can be effectively stabilised using monetary policy instruments, but it is necessary to think about alternatives that go beyond the actions of the ECB, including common debt instruments as well as an emphasis on pro-development investments and structural reforms.»

«As Gulf actors seek to exert more influence in the Eastern Mediterranean region, the US and the EU should seek to de-escalate regional tensions. To be sure, the incoming Biden administration will have its hands full in its attempt to repair alliances around the world, and the Eastern Mediterranean will likely not be a major priority. Rather than picking sides, the new administration could try to restrain the ambitions of some regional actors, including Turkey and the Gulf states. Libya, in particular, could be an opportunity for the Biden administration to show leadership through its support of UN efforts as part of a long-term multilateral solution to the conflict. A stable Libya would make it easier for the new US administration to engage the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean over other issues, including those related to gas exploration and exploitation as well as tensions over Cyprus.»

«In the past few months, the EU has started upgrading its climate ambitions: European institutions, and the Commission in particular, have managed to deliver a substantial increase in the targets and tools available for climate action, coming close to aligning the EU’s position to the commitments of the Paris Agreement. Despite falling short of achieving the radical change in the level of ambition that many NGOs and environmentalists had hoped for, the EU now is in a solid position to review its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and to promote key changes in its energy, industrial and climate plans, particularly regarding the role of natural gas and hydrogen. The upcoming massive set of legislative proposals in areas such as the automotive sector, agriculture and energy taxation, as well as the Climate Law, will be key to achieving renewed EU climate aspirations.»